Interest Rates Rising Sharply

While most investors and analysts have been focused on the stock market’s recovery to levels near all-time highs, the fixed-income market has made a sharp move of its own. Looking at the key Treasury market, the ten-year Note yield has risen from 1.43% in early September to the 1.80% level today. Similarly…

On September 11, 2019, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced producer price inflation data for the month of August. Final demand prices rose 0.1% in August, compared to an increase of 0.2% in July and 0.1% in June. The Core rate, excluding food and energy, rose 0.4% in August, after a 0.1% decline…

On Friday, September 6, 2019, the Department of Labor reported the August employment situation. Job growth for August came in at 130,000 well below the June figure of 178,000 and the July number of 159,000. The June and July figures were also adjusted downward by a total of 20,000 from the original estimates…

As part of our continuing scrutiny of the S/P 500 Index earnings forecasts, our latest update shows slow earnings growth in 2019 and an increased rate for 2020. Specifically, the FACTSET estimate for 2019 is $165.36, up 2.4% from the 2018 level. For next year, the forecast expects earnings of $182.72…

On August 29, 2019, the Commerce Department issued its revised seasonally adjusted annual rate of GDP growth. The rate was lowered from 2.1% to 2.0%, somewhat lower than the annual rate of 3.1% in the first quarter. Inflation remained tame, at an annual rate of 1.7% for the Core figure which excludes…