By Tom Burnett CFA
CNBC Market Pro presents a quarterly survey of leading Wall Street market strategist forecasts for year-end S/P 500 Index target prices. The latest survey (March 24, 2022) offers 15 separate target prices. We monitor these Surveys and will present our summaries as they are updated by CNBC.
The equity markets clearly face some daunting headwinds—rising inflation and interest rates, a restrictive Federal Reserve policy stance, and political uncertainties surrounding the war in Ukraine. The strategists, however, seem confident that the stock market will ride out these difficulties and finish with a positive performance for the year. The Index closed 2021 at 4,749 and ten of the 15 strategists in the Survey see it closing higher at the end of 2022. The maximum target is offered by John Stoltzfus of Oppenheimer at 5,330. The lowest target is forecast at 4,400 by Michael Wilson of Morgan Stanley. The average target of the 15 strategists is 4,920 well above the current level of 4,510. The outlook for earnings is positive also with an average gain of 8-10% at the level of $220-230, up from $208 in 2021.
It is important to note that the equity markets have performed quite well over each of the last three years. In 2019, the S/P 500 Index returned 31.5%, in 2020, the return was 16.3%, and in 2021, the return was 26.9%, continuing the strong rally off the Covid-19 bear market low in 2020. At the present time, the bulk of the large firms’ market strategists expect positive returns to continue in the 2022 year.
Tom Burnett CFA is Director of Research