On July 23, the IMF issued its formal Global Growth Update with a lukewarm forecast. Global growth is now estimated at 3.2% for 2019 and 3.5% for 2020. Both of these two estimates are 0.1% lower than the estimates last published in the April Update. By comparison, global growth in 2018 was 3.6%. Uncertainties created by the China-US trade dispute, the tensions in the Middle East, and the confusion in the UK and Europe caused by the Brexit proposals have all led to a lowering of global growth expectations. Estimates for the 2019 and 2020 growth in world trade volumes were lowered by 0.9% and 0.2% respectively.
On a positive note, inflation pressures continue to abate and interest rates remain at historically low levels. In fact, government bond rates have plunged into negative territory in such important bond markets as Germany, Switzerland, and Japan.
The US growth rate is now anticipated at 2.9% for 2019, declining to 1.9% in 2020.