By Tom Burnett CFA
On October 10, 2023, the International Monetary Fund (“IMF”) lowered its 2024 global growth forecast from 3.0% to 2.9%, leaving its projection for 2023 growth at 3.0%. Growth in 2022 was 3.5%. World Consumer Prices are now forecast to rise by 6.9% this year and 5.8% in 2024. In July, the IMF price forecast for 2024 was 5.2%.
Growth of U.S. GDP is now forecast at 2.1% this year and 1.5% in 2024, compared to growth of 2.1% in 2022. The latest figures are increased by 0.3% for 2023 and by 0.5% for 2024 relative to the July forecasts.
In Europe, the growth forecasts were lowered to 0.7% in 2023 and 1.2% in 2024. In 2022, the Euro area GDP grew by 3.3%.
China is now seen to grow its GDP by 5.0% in 2023 and by 4.2% in 2024. In 2022, China’s GDP only grew by 3.0% as a result of Covid-19 outbreaks and related lockdowns.
World Trade Volumes grew by 5.1% last year, but are now expected to grow by only 0.9% this year and by 3.5% in 2024.
Tom Burnett CFA is Director of Research