By Tom Burnett CFA
On July 25, 2023, the International Monetary Fund (“IMF”) released a regular update of its global GDP forecast report. Global GDP growth in 2023 is now expected to reach 3.0%, up from a forecast of 2.8% in the April projections report.
The U.S. economy is forecast to grow just 1.8% this year, well below the 2.1% rate in 2022. Next year, the growth projection is just 1.0% as the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes slow down the U.S. GDP growth rate potential.
The Euro Area is projected to grow by only 0.9% this year and by 1.5% in 2024.
Japan growth rates are projected at 1.4% this year and 1.0% in 2024;
China is now seen to recover from last year’s 3.0% growth rate to 5.2% this year and 4.5% in 2024.
World trade volumes are now seen to expand by 2.0% this year, down from growth of 5.2% in 2022. Trade volumes are expected to grow by 3.7% in 2024.
The next update will be issued in October.
Tom Burnett CFA is Director of Research