By Tom Burnett CFA
On January 10, 2023, the World Bank issued its 2023 “Global Economic Prospects” report which lays out its view that an economic slowdown is expected in most regions this year. This forecast will be updated in June, but the message is clear, the Bank is looking for reduced GDP growth compared to 2021 and 2022.
The 2023 forecast for World GDP growth is now just 1.7%, compared to growth of 2.9% in 2022. The 1.7% figure is lower by 1.3% from the June 2022 projection.
Looking at specific regions, the U.S. economy is now forecast to grow by only 0.5% in 2023, down from 1.9% in 2022. Last June, the expected 2023 growth figure was 2.4%.
In Europe, the 2023 GDP growth forecast is just 0.1% , following a rise of only 0.2% in 2022. The 2023 forecast is down from a projection of 1.5% growth last June.
China is now thought to grow its GDP by 4.3% this year, but that estimate is lower by 0.9% from the projection last June.
All the primary economic regions are now expected to experience lower GDP growth than was forecast in the June 2022 Report.
After growing by 4.0% in 2022, world trade volumes are expected to grow by only 1.6% in 2023, down from a forecast of 4.3% in the June 2022 Report.
Tom Burnett CFA is Director of Research