Full Year Earnings Estimates Holding Up So Far

As of August 9, 2019, some 450 of the S/P 500 Index companies have reported June quarterly results ( Bloomberg L.P.). According to the FACTSET database (August 9) the S/P 500 earnings for the 2019 year are now forecast at $165.51, some 2.5% above the 2018 figure. Earlier in the year (February 15) the…

On August 2, 2019, the Department of Labor released the monthly Jobs Report. The Report indicated that nonfarm payrolls increased by 164,000 in July. The figure was in line with consensus estimates. The unemployment rate came in at 3.7%, close to a 50-year low. While job growth for May and June was revised…

As expected, on July 31, 2019, the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee cut its key fed funds rate by one-quarter of a point. The new range is now 2/2.25%. This decision was the first decrease in more than ten years. Treasury rates adjusted downwards as the 30-year bond yield fell to 2.52% and the ten-year…

While the post-Recession economic expansion continues on pace for a post-WW II record, growth is slowing down.   The early estimate for GDP growth for the June Quarter was 2.1%, down from a 3.1% annual rate in the first quarter.  For the first half of 2019, GDP growth averaged an  annual rate of…

On July 23, the IMF issued its formal Global Growth Update with a lukewarm forecast.   Global growth is now estimated at 3.2% for 2019 and 3.5% for 2020.   Both of these two estimates are 0.1% lower than the estimates last published in the April Update.  By comparison, global growth in 2018 was…