While the post-Recession economic expansion continues on pace for a post-WW II record, growth is slowing down. The early estimate for GDP growth for the June Quarter was 2.1%, down from a 3.1% annual rate in the first quarter. For the first half of 2019, GDP growth averaged an annual rate of 2.6%. Inflation remains subdued with the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) deflator coming in at a rate of 1.8% during the second quarter.
For now, all investor focus will be on the Federal Reserve’s actions, to be announced on Wednesday, July 31. Most observers expect the FED to cut rates by 25 basis points. If so, the cut will be first one since the Recession began in 2008. On Friday, August 2, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the ‘jobs’ report for July. Analysts’ consensus estimates for new jobs center around 165,000 to 170,000 (Bloomberg LP).